USDA Projects 14.8 Billion Bushel Corn Crop
Thursday, May 10th, 2012
This morning, USDA released its first estimate of the 2012/2013 corn crop size and it is a big one.
According to this estimate, USDA is projecting record US corn production of 14.79 billion bushels - up 1.7 billion bushels from the previous record of 13.09 billion bushels in 2009.
USDA is also projecting corn for ethanol use to be 5 billion bushels for the marketing year running from September 1, 2012 to August 31, 2013.
While still just an estimate, the confidence USDA is displaying in American farmers underscores their unique ability to feed the world and help renewably fuel the nation. There is a lot of growing season left, and these numbers could change by the fall.
But, with normal growing conditions it is clear that farmers will continue to meet the bell and provide safe, reliable food and clean, domestic fuel and silence those chicken littles that perpetually predict a shortage of corn and catastrophe in the grocery aisle.
The following is some context for this historic projection:
At 14.79 billion bushels, the 2012 corn crop would:
• be a record crop by far, beating the 2009 crop of 13.09 billion bushels by 11%.
• be 65% larger than the crop from 10 years ago (8.97 billion bushels in 2002).
• be more than twice as large as the average-sized annual corn crop in the decade of the 1980s (7.15 billion bushels on average).
The 2012 projected yield of 166 bushels per acre would:
• be a record yield, beating out the 2009 average yield of 164.7 bushels per acre.
• be only the third time in history yields have topped 160 bu/acre, the others being 2009 (164.7) and 2004 (160.4).
• be 35% higher than the average yield from the 1990s and 12% higher than the average yield since 2000.
2012/13 projected carry-out of 1.88 billion bushels would:
• be more than double the 2011/12 carry-out of 851 billion bushels.
• be the highest level of carry-out in seven years (2005/06 carry-out was 1.97 billion bushels).
• be the fourth-largest carry-out in the last 20 years.
• be 26% larger than the average carry-out since 2000.