US pasture conditions continue to be in very good shape for this time of year and that should be helpful to US cow-calf producers going into the fall. While beef cow slaughter has been very high during much of this year (for reasons discussed at length in a number of previous reports) the improvements in pasture conditions still remain a positive influence for the feeder market.

The latest data from USDA shows that for the week ending August 15, 53% of pastures in the US were considered to be in good or very good condition. Last year 51% of pastures were characterized as such and the five year average for the comparable week is just 36%. Pasture conditions tend to fall into the summer as higher temperatures take their toll.

So far this summer, moisture conditions have been quite favorable. As the map to the right shows, there is currently very little drought stress in the Great Plains, where a large portion of the US beef cow herd resides. While there is great variability in individual conditions, it has been quite some time that we have seen a summer map that is so devoid of brown and red drought indicator markers. The only problem at the moment is the Southeast, which is under some drought stress.

But again, the overall situation appears to be one of the best in the past 15 years. Beef cow slaughter has been trending lower in the last few weeks, partly due to more dairy cows becoming available. Dairy cow slaughter for the week ending July 31 (latest data) was reported to be 56,727 head, 17% higher than a year ago. The increase in dairy cow slaughter was expected as dairy producers embark on their herd liquidation program.

The program is expected to bring about 34,000 dairy cows to market between the end of July and first three weeks of August. Dairy cow slaughter during this period (July 26 - Aug 21) is expected to be on average 16.5% higher than a year ago. Beef cow slaughter, on the other hand, has been trending lower. For the week ending July 31, US beef cow slaughter was reported to be 61,344 head, 1.7% lower than a year ago. Beef cow during the month of July was up only 0.6% compared to a year ago, notably lower than May and June levels, which averaged 20% over year ago.

The Daily Livestock Report by Steve Meyer and Len Steiner

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